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Base rate neglect

Curated Category: probability-judgment

General prevalence is ignored when interpreting specific cases.

The narrative builds probability claims from salient examples while omitting denominator context and population-level baseline data.

Detection signals

  • Probability claims without priors/denominator.
  • Outlier case treated as typical.
  • Strong inference from sparse sample.

Caution notes

  • Sometimes baseline data is genuinely unavailable.
  • Flag only when omission materially changes interpretation.

AI-generated domain examples

Generate illustrative examples for a selected domain/topic. Generated output is separated from canonical ontology content.

Related biases