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Outcome bias

Curated Category: evaluation

Judging decision quality by outcome rather than information available at decision time.

The narrative treats successful outcomes as proof of good process and adverse outcomes as proof of bad process without reconstructing prior uncertainty.

Detection signals

  • Process quality inferred only from final result.
  • Decision context at time of choice is omitted.
  • Retrospective certainty replaces ex-ante reasoning.

Caution notes

  • Outcomes still matter for accountability.
  • Bias appears when process evidence is systematically ignored.

AI-generated domain examples

Generate illustrative examples for a selected domain/topic. Generated output is separated from canonical ontology content.

Related biases