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Illusion of control

Curated Category: judgment-heuristics

Overestimating how much uncertain outcomes can be controlled.

The narrative presents volatile or probabilistic outcomes as if they are almost fully controllable through intent, confidence, or selective intervention.

Detection signals

  • Strong control claims without mechanism detail.
  • Randomness is treated as negligible.
  • Risk is reframed as fully manageable by execution quality.

Caution notes

  • Operational planning often requires confidence signals.
  • Mark bias when control claims materially exceed evidence.

AI-generated domain examples

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