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Optimism bias

Curated Category: affect-weighting

Positive outcomes are overestimated and risks are underestimated.

The narrative favors upside projections and downplays downside uncertainty, creating systematically optimistic interpretation of outcomes.

Detection signals

  • Upside certainty without risk calibration.
  • Adverse scenarios acknowledged only superficially.
  • Strong positive conclusions from limited data.

Caution notes

  • Strategic vision may intentionally highlight opportunity.
  • Detect bias when downside treatment is systematically weaker.

AI-generated domain examples

Generate illustrative examples for a selected domain/topic. Generated output is separated from canonical ontology content.

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